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HoREA: In 2018, there is no possibility of a real estate bubble

In 2018, there is no possibility of a real estate bubble

HCMC Real Estate Association (HoREA) said in 2018, the real estate market is unlikely to happen “bubble”. The cause is that there are more timely and effective government intervention and adjustment; Enterprises are trying to restructure their investment and secondary investors are becoming more conscious and market-savvy.

According to HoREA, although the real estate market has experienced a series of land fever, but these are just local price fever in the land market segment, agricultural land not general direction of the market.

On the other hand, the apartment market – the largest segment of the real estate market, has not experienced price fever, even many investors have reduced the price of apartments, especially the project affordable apartment.

Therefore, HoREA said that in 2018, the market is unlikely to happen “bubble” real estate.

Revaluation of the real estate market in 2007 – early 2008 and 2010, HoREA found that the bubble situation is caused by five causes.

In 2018, there is no possibility of a real estate bubble
In 2018, there is no possibility of a real estate bubble

Firstly, GDP growth in 2007 was very high (8.48%); HCMC’s GRDP growth in 2007 reached 12.6% – the highest growth rate in 10 years since 1997, leading to the fact that many businesses, easy-to-earn people and real estate are channeling Investment is the property chosen for storage, for business, including speculation.

Secondly, the loosening credit policy has boosted credit growth by 37% (in 2007). The money is plentiful, of which a huge part has been poured into real estate.

Thirdly, the market has the development of supply-demand curve. The market is mainly hot in the high end real estate segment.

Fourth, there are many real estate investors, brokers, brokers, brokers, and real estate waves with high frequencies. Speculative professional “hold” price, blowing price, wave, surf, virtual prices are very high compared with the real value of real estate to profit, make a profit quickly, stimulate investment psychology “herd” on the real estate market.

Fifth is the competent state agencies do not use timely, effective tax tools, credit tools, tools on land use planning and planning, policy of investment projects to regulate Real estate market immediately after the “bubble” sign.

In addition, the real estate bubble crisis in 2010 is also impacted by the stimulus package worth $ 1 billion in mid-2009 of the Government. This large part of the capital has been misused, leading to the price of the real estate market.

Comparing the reasons for the “bubble” of real estate with the current situation of the market, HoREA noted that GDP growth in 2017 despite the highest level in 10 years but still level Positive and reasonable growth. The economy has no hot growth.

In addition, the credit growth of the country in 2017 reached 18.17% (only roughly half of the credit growth rate of 37% in 2007); It is expected that credit growth of about 17% in 2011 will be positive and reasonable.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is implementing a prudent, tight and flexible credit policy. Strictly control credit sources in high risk areas such as real estate; Implement a roadmap to limit credit to this area. Commercial banks also do not have loose credit or subprime lending; deposit rates are quite stable; Medium and long-term interest rates are ranged from 9.3-11% pa.

The market still has two signs of daunting: supply-demand and speculative movements have risen sharply, but these two factors reflect only a part of the real estate market and mainly land plot, agricultural land, condotel. Therefore, the price fever is only “virtual”, local, temporary, but not cause “bubble” across the entire real estate market.

“In 2018 it is even more unlikely that real estate bubbles will emerge as competent state agencies have a wealth of experience in the timely and effective use of tax instruments; credit tools; Tools on land use planning and planning, policy of investment projects to effectively regulate the real estate market immediately after the appearance of a bubble, “HoREA emphasized.

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