If the State Bank has a credit mechanism for homebuyers, in addition to a Resolution on bad debt settlement of credit institutions, the real estate market will be more active, but the risk also becomes more.
Money in the rush, real estate business grows like mushrooms
Real estate is the most attractive channel. The government is working on a program to support housing credit, and the resolution of the bad debt resolution passed by the National Assembly has made the market more excited.
The new housing support package is just at the research level. According to experts, the solution is arrows hitting multiple targets: both help increases GDP, both support bad debt treatment while stimulating real estate market development.
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However, in the context of real estate credit soaring from the beginning of the year, the pouring of money into this area also brought many concerns.
According to the HCM City Real Estate Association (HoREA), in the first 6 months of 2017, real estate credit growth was 6.35%, up sharply from 5% in the same period last year. In addition, the market also received thousands of newly established real estate businesses, in HCMC alone, about 6,000 newly established enterprises.
Statistics from the National Financial Supervisory Commission also showed that consumer credit rose sharply (up 30%), and in particular, 53% of total consumer loans for house purchase and repairing houses. Thus, there is the phenomenon of real estate credit “hidden” in consumer credit.
It is understandable that banks are pouring money into real estate and real estate consumer credit as the market is flourishing. As the State Bank of Vietnam’s Circular No. 06/2016 / TT-NHNN tightens real estate credit, the bank “spits” into consumer credit.
It is known that the real estate lending banks with investors are only 38%, home buyer loans up to 62% and this number is continuing to increase.
Read more: Vietnam Real Estate Market
Specifically, Circular 06 stipulates that from 2017, the proportion of short-term capital for medium and long-term loans of commercial banks will decrease from 60% to 50% and to 2018 only to 40%; The real estate business risk ratio increased from 150% to 200%.
Need to closely supervise the cash flow
Masters. Can Van Luc, an economist, said that the bank’s restructuring from project lending, real estate businesses to direct home buyers is a positive signal to meet real demand. Moreover, for banks, this type of loan is also very risky.
However, in the context of slowing economic growth, the production and business sector is not very prosperous, adding more capital to the sector can cause a real estate bubble to emerge and a bad debt scenario will return as before. And this time, the situation will worsen, as the debt burden is not only concentrated on a number of investors, businesses but will spread very wide with many households and individuals.
Currently, consumer credit accounts for only about 12% of total system debt, but if the risk occurs, the “damage” of the real estate market to the whole economy is huge.
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