Looking Back At HCMC Real Estate Market In 2017 And  Forecasting For 2018

HCMC Real Estate Association (HoREA) has released a report on the real estate market in 2017, forecasts in 2018, and proposed solutions to develop the market transparent, healthy and sustainable.

Looking back on the real estate market in HCMC in 2017

In 2017, the city has developed 10.11 million square meters of housing, raising the total area of the city housing to 162.25 million square meters, average 18.87 sqm/ per person.

According to HoREA, housing projects invested by enterprises have been increasing, including many large projects:

The city now has 29 large-scale housing projects with a total investment of nearly 158 trillion Dongs. Of which, there are two projects with the scale of over 50ha, and 27 projects with total investment of over VND 3,000 billion or over 1,500 apartments/houses.

The city’s commercial housing market in 2017 has 92 housing projects formed in the future have been certified by the Department of Construction eligible for capital mobilization, with a total of 42,991 houses (of which, 37,502 apartment buildings, 5,489 houses with the total value of VND 86,421 billion.

Looking back at HCMC real estate market in 2017 and forecasting for 2018

In 2017, 92 housing projects in the future were approved by the Department of Construction to qualify for capital mobilization

According to HoREA, this data does not include completed projects for the construction of new houses and new ones, and does not include land plots for land plots, land sales, and more concentrated areas in the east (district 2, District 9, Thu Duc), south (District 7, Nha Be, District 8, Binh Tan).

Of which, the high end segment has 10,987 units, representing 25.5% (an increase of 3,747 units, a 22.9% increase compared to 2016); Mid-range segment has 19,509 units, accounting for 45.5% (up 1,081 units, increasing 16.4% compared to 2016); The average segment is 12,495 units, accounting for 29.1% (increasing 5,026 units, increasing 67.3% compared to 2016).

Thus, HoREA estimates that the proportion of affordable (mid-end and low-cost) flats still accounts for the largest share of 74% of all flats launched in 2017, similar to 2016. This is a good sign because investors and businesses have had a strong product restructuring in the direction of increasing the number of small and medium-sized apartments (1-2 bedrooms)

On the project transfer (M & A), in the year 2017 in Ho Chi Minh City, there were 27 applications for the project to be traded, including 7 projects under evaluation or further improvement the composition of the dossier as prescribed, and 20 projects have been approved by the City People’s Committee for transfer.

Looking back at HCMC real estate market in 2017 and forecasting for 2018

M & A situation in Ho Chi Minh City in 2017 occurred exciting

In 2017, the country has about 127,000 newly established enterprises with the total registered capital of 1,295,911 billion dong. HCMC alone has 41,194 enterprises (accounting for 32.4% of the total newly established enterprises in the country).

Of which 2,529 real estate enterprises accounted for 6.14%, with a total registered capital of 266.866 trillion dong, accounting for 44.69% of the total registered capital of newly established enterprises, bringing the total number of real estate enterprises up to 6,939 enterprises, out of nearly 400,000 enterprises in the city (actually only nearly 200,000 enterprises actually engaged in production and business activities).

According to the HoREA report, housing disputes continue to increase. The city has 935 high-rise apartment building, there are 105 apartments are disputed to varying degrees, in which, there is 9 apartment complex is the very tough dispute.

The main cause is the dispute as the investor delayed the Congress of the condominium to elect the Managing Board; have not handed over the apartment maintenance fund; Disputes of common ownership in the apartment (garage, community living room, areas can be leased business …); disputes on the management of use of the operating fee collected from residential units paid monthly; quality of construction of apartment; quality of equipment; fire prevention.

Especially, according to HoREA, there are many cases where investors fail to hand over their houses properly; Have not made a “red book” for homebuyers over the years; In many cases, the investor has mortgaged the apartment and the project to the bank without mortgage; They have not been qualified to take over the works but have put people in unsafe places.

Forecasting real estate market in HCMC in 2018

Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association said that real estate market in 2018 will continue positive growth and most likely will remain stable as in 2017. Real estate market next year will revolve around 10 factors.

First, the segment of the market is affordable 1-2 bedroom apartment, the price of less than one billion per unit is still the mainstream segment and the highest liquidity of the real estate market. The high-end market segment will have a strong restructuring to match the purchasing power of the market. Condotel segment, the land subdivision will continue to grow hot. The situation of disputes in the apartment continues to evolve increasingly fierce, need to be controlled and handled in time.

Looking back at HCMC real estate market in 2017 and forecasting for 2018

In 2018, the segment of affordable housing will still be popular among consumers

Second, GDP in 2017 reached 6.81%. Credit growth may reach about 19%. Foreign investment and FDI disbursement are all concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2017, which will have a positive impact in the first quarter of 2018.

Congress and the Government set a GDP growth target of 6.5-6.7%. The positive movement of state agencies under the motto promulgated by the Prime Minister will positively impact the economy and the real estate market in 2018.

Thirdly, it is forecasted that in the period 2018-2020, the real estate market will continue to adjust to solve the current supply and demand deviation, helping the market return to the healthy development. There will be a drastic shift in the real estate market segment that is affordable to meet the real needs of the majority of middle-income people.

Fourth, HCM City is studying to shift the purpose of using about 1/3 of an agricultural land fund into service industry land, urban land, smart urban construction, urban development direction to high areas North West … is the basis for the development of real estate market in the medium and long-term.

Fifth, with a population of over 93 million, is in the golden population phase. Of these, nearly 60% are under the age of 35, with about 50 million Internet users, accounting for 53% of the population, have opened the possibility of the trading real estate through the network, taking advantage of Information Technology in a digital era.

Sixth, the State will promulgate many new laws from now to 2020. It is expected in 2018 may submit to the National Assembly to consider three groups of bills directly related to the real estate market is ” Draft Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Land Law “,” Draft Law amending and supplementing some articles of the Law on Housing, Law on Real Estate Business, Law on Construction, Law on Urban Planning “, “Draft Law Amending and Supplementing a Number of Articles of the Investment Law, Enterprise Law”.

The state will use tax instruments such as homeowners tax, real estate tax, and credit tools such as the credit limit roadmap to the real estate market under Circular 06/2016 / TT. -NHNN of the State Bank of Vietnam, but in fact, credit growth in 2017 is likely to reach about 19% leading to concerns about the hot development of the economy, which can make real estate fever return.

Looking back at HCMC real estate market in 2017 and forecasting for 2018

2018 is unlikely to be a real estate bubble

Seventh, the trend of cooperation between enterprises will be inevitable. Mergers, mergers and acquisitions will be stronger than in the past. This is partly due to the effective implementation of the National Assembly Resolution on the pilot implementation of bad debt.

The demand of the modern real estate market requires enterprises to constantly restructure, reform themselves and innovate, build the corporate culture, corporate spirit, fully reflect social responsibility with customers.

Eighth, foreign capital inflows and remittances continue to be an important source of investment in the economy and the real estate market in the near future. The fourth technology revolution, Internet connection and the trend of developing green real estate projects, full of utilities are the new requirements of consumers that investors have to meet.

Nineth predicted whether or not there is a real estate bubble in 2018 HoREA found it difficult to happen due to the timing adjustment and efficiency of the State. Enterprises are also trying to restructure the investment, reshaping the product to meet the needs of the market. Secondary investors are more alert, more market savvy. In other words, by experiencing the crisis of the real estate market, the subjects are smarter.

10th, the urban upgrading and urban development program of Ho Chi Minh City with 3 major programs is to renovate the canal and on the canals, rebuild old damaged buildings, renovate old residential areas and Program The development of new urban areas with the orientation of developing satellite urban areas will be the driving forces for HCM City’s real estate market.

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